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Monday, February 19, 2018

The Future Of Oil And Gas

This is actually based on an article called The Future of Automotive Innovation which was sent to me by a reader. Thank you very much again.

But I have decided to call it "The future of oil and gas" because most certainly all these new automotive technologies will reduce the consumption of petrol and diesel not just in the cars and vehicles but also result in large savings in other sectors of the economy. 

Here are some infographics for your perusal.

1. In 2015 the automotive industry was a US$3.5 Trillion business, worldwide. By 2030 it is projected to reach US$6.7 trillion.

2.  The future of cars is self driving plus autonomous driving. Here is a graphic of what the market will be by 2030 :

My view is these figures will be achieved much earlier than 2030 - which is just 12 years away.  There will be less road accidents. Car repair shops will go out of business.  Motor vehicle insurance will die a natural death. Uber drivers, pizza delivery boys, lorry drivers, delivery van drivers etc will become an extinct species.  Please pay attention.  Singapore has already introduced an autonomous driving  taxi service. 

There will be no more petrol stations. You recharge your EV car in your house or in your condominium or shopping complex car park. 

3.  Major cities, countries going fully electric

Besides Paris, Madrid, Athens and Mexico City I believe the whole of Scandinavia (and Denmark) will adopt this no-more-petrol-burning vehicles by 2025. That is just seven years away.  If they achieve this, and there is no reason to say they will not, then the others will accelerate their Electrtic Vehicle programs much quicker. The chart above does not show two giants Germany and China - who also have plans to go all electric. The petrol engine will become extinct by 2030.

4.  Lithium Ion battery prices

Here is a chart showing the downward movement of prices for lithium ion batteries that are used in EVs (electric vehicles).

By 2016 (two years ago) the price of lithium ion batteries reached US$190/kWh. This is a price decrease of over 80% in just SIX years or 13.5% EACH YEAR. 

Their target is to reach a low of US$100/kWh soon.  It may possibly go lower than that.  If EV car batteries become cheaper, the price of EV cars will also decrease.  

Here is a projection of global car sales by engine type (petrol vs EV/hybrids).

From 2010 to 2015 it is already historical data - it shows decreasing sales for petrol driven cars (as a % of all engine types). EVs and hybrids are on an increasing uptrend. 

Here is some basic physics.  

Work done = Force x distance moved by force.

What this means is that whether petrol driven or electric battery driven, you will still need the same amount of energy  to move your say 1.5 tonne family sedan the same distance from A to B.  You cannot change the laws of physics.

You may not pour petrol into your gas tank anymore, but energy wise you will have to use an "equivalent amount" in electrical energy to move your car the same distance. 

The work done is the same.

This means the power stations in your country must burn an extra tank of fuel to generate an extra  tankful equivalent of electrical energy to recharge your EV car batteries to move your EV car the same distances.  That equation cannot change.

What does change is the fact that the conversion of oil to electric energy (in the power stations) is more efficient than burning petrol directly inside your car engine. This is where the savings are achieved. Some say up to 30% more efficient. 

This is where oil prices must and will drop. 

Plus we can embed  our highways with photovoltaic solar cells that can tap sunlight energy for free and EV cars can recharge WHILE they are still driving.  China has already built an experimental stretch of highway with solar cells embedded on the road surface.

Here is a picture of the photovoltaic highway in Jinan, China :

If everyone starts doing this (and they will) the oil companies and oil economies will go bust.

The future is going to be even more fantastic.  
Life will become easier. 
Standards of living will become even higher. 
And cheaper.

Watch out petrol cars.  
Watch out petrol car manufacturers. 
Watch out oil companies.
Watch out oil economies.

In Malaysia, Geely has taken control of Proton and Toyota/Daihatsu has majority control of  Perodua.

Thus BOTH Proton and Perodua are quite safe.
Because both Geely and Toyota have invested heavily in EV technology. 

It is a matter of time before Proton and Perodua manufacture EV vehicles in Malaysia. Even fully autonomous EVs driving by themselves.  Dont worry too much. Geely and Toyota/Daihatsu will know what to do.

But what happens to our oil company Petronas, our oil and gas industry and our oil dependent gomen Budget and economic planning?  

There is not enough thinking going on in that direction.

We must free up the economy now. 
Otherwise we are all going to become foolish beggars.  
Driving outdated and increasingly expensive, petrol driven cars. 
We will have to make-by-hand our own spare parts for our petrol cars. 

The gomen is going to earn less and less from oil exports. 
How are they going to balance the Budget?
Where are they going to earn the money?

The solution is very simple.
Free the economy.
The people know what to do. 
The gomen's job is to equip the people with good education, training and skills.
Then let the people decide how to handle their future.

We know what to do.  

We must increase the numbers of our workforce.
We must increase the numbers of income tax paying members of our workforce,  (ie those who earn more than say RM3000 per month).

Say 80% or more of gomen revenue should then be based on income and corporate taxes from the productive workforce.  This way the gomen (and the economy) will not be too dependent on a few sectors like oil and gas, commmodities etc.  

We certainly do not need the GST in this country.

Talking about electric cars? Here are some engineers who have designed, built and are marketing heavy duty electric trucks:

Link :

Trump Cuts Off All Aid, Pakistan No Money, Rents Out Army To Saudi Arabia

First here is the news:

major policy shift, Pakistan to deploy troops in Saudi 
bilateral security cooperation with kingdom 
ongoing war in neighbouring Yemen

Pakistan Army announced decision 
after meeting between Gen Javed Bajwa, Saudi ambassador 
at army headquarters in Rawalpindi 

continuation of Pak-Saudi security cooperation
Pak Army contingent sent to Saudi 
already 1,000 Paki troops in Saudi 

no official word on additional troops sent to kingdom 

Saudi pushing Pakistan to provide troops since 2015 
war in Yemen stalemate 
situation aggravated with missiles fired towards kingdom

Bajwa visited Saudi, met Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman 
his 2nd visit to kingdom in 2 months 
played role in Pakistan's decision to deploy troops

My comments :  This was bound to happen.  

Bear in mind that  Donald Trump has cut off ALL aid to Pakistan, military as well as economic aid.  That is billions of US Dollars.  

And US aid has long been a source of money for the Pakistani generals. So now the Pakistani Generals have no more money coming from the US.

Todate the Pakistanis have refused to help Saudi Arabia in the Saudi aggression and genocide against Yemen.  

But money talks loudest.  
The Saudis are willing to pay big money. 
So the Pakistani Army is available for rent.

The last Pakistani intervention in the Middle East was in Bahrain during the Arab Spring uprising in March 2011. 

Sunni Pakistani soldiers wearing Saudi uniforms helped massacre hundreds of Shia Bahrainis. 

14 March 2011, Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) : Bahrain, Saudi, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, UAE sent troops at request of Bahrain govt.  4,000 Saudi troops arrived  in 150 armoured vehicles, 50 other vehicles.

Although it says Saudi troops, they were actually Pakistani-Rent-An-Army soldiers.

Bahrain was an easy shooting in the fish tank. 
Yemen is a different ball game altogether.

The British, Egyptians, Saudis, Sudan and UAE have all got their butts kicked in Yemen.  Maybe now its the Pakistani Army's  turn.

The French Courts

Folks, two very interesting cases are now being tried in the French Courts. One is that rape charge against Tariq Ramadhan of the Muslim Brotherhood or Ikhwan Muslimin. Tariq Ramadan is the grandson of Muslim Brotherhood founder hassan al Banna.

The other case developing in the French courts has ties closer to home. It is about that Scorpene corruption case.  

For a certainty the French court case is bound to stir up plenty of mud from the past. Plenty plenty mud. It looks like it will go beyond just the submarine deal.  Perhaps details of who exactly was paid that hefty commission will be made known in court. Maybe it was  your mother in law. Maybe not. Surprise.   

There might be other details as well which might revisit the murder of that unfortunate woman. 

First the High Court said guilty.
Then the Court of Appeal said not guilty.
Finally the Federal Court said guilty. 

The Court of Appeal said just a few main things - their motive to commit that gruesome murder was not proven in Court.  No motive. So the Court of Appeal acquitted them.

Here lies the rub. 

What if the French Court "delves" into the who-dunnit?

The cat just might drag a pretty big fish into the courtroom in Paris. 

Of Planted Agents, Double Agents and Double Cross.

Gong Xi Fa Cai folks. Couldnt update the blog for a few days. Attended a very long and multi layered mamak wedding that went on and on for three days over the Chinese New Year. Family and relatives from near and far gathered.  The next generation is building their own nests.

Well its over. Chinese New Year too is over. Began the day early this morning with a really nice swim in the pool. Water temperarure perfect despite cool morning.

Lately I have also been reading about double agents and spies. More of that later. 

To all you noisy NGOs, activists, online activists and others out there, just to tell you that you have been "infiltrated" by planted agents and spies, double agents and of course double crossers for a very long time. 

There are two people you should know about. The first of course is the Moron of Manchester.  Only lately it has become obvious to many that the Moron has been bought and paid for.  Actually this has been going on for some time.  I would say for more than 10 years. Go back and look at some of his posts. Some of the details (especially the pictures) cannot come from the "Raja of so and so's wife". It has to come from the other side. From the Thieves side of the divide.   When did I come to know about it? The less said the better.

The second fellow is more devious. He has not been fully "discovered"  yet. Pretends to know it all but he is really a third class par_ah fellow of the lowest order. Not worth dog poo on a nickel. Very loud and provocative and joins up with NGOs and activists according to their volume. The louder you are, the closer he will get.  I have also suspected the guy for quite some time. But recently a close friend who is pretty much uptodate about plenty of things told me the same thing, quite out of the blue. Better be warned. 

The other news item that triggered these thoughts is the turbulence in the cess pool over who owns this news website and that website. Who is the real dalang and the real patron or funder behind the scenes.

Well except for this blog, The Thingy, Malaysian Chronicle, Free Malaysia Today and a few other sites,  the others have been bought.

Morons boys have bought some of them. Even Java Man is said to be behind one of them. One way to see who owns which website is to see who is NOT a target of a particular website's criticism.

When Java Man is not criticised at all or is hardly criticised by one website, it is possibly because they are in his pocket already.

All this is a waste of time. 

Whats App is now more popular and lightning fast than many other applications. How do you control Whats App? 

The Dinosaur Age has ended.  Double agents are also so passe - out of date.  

Sekarang sudah ada EI dan ES lah (electronic intelligence, electronic surveillance).